Economic Criteria for Evaluating Commodity Price Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Economic Criteria for Evaluating Commodity Price Forecasts
Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitativeprecision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potentialutility gains from utilizing them, not for theiraccuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns,the expected utility of...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics
سال: 1997
ISSN: 1074-0708,2056-7405
DOI: 10.1017/s1074070800007835